The BDP 2100 is an adaptive plan designed to be adjusted during its implementation as circumstances change and outputs from plan implementation are achieved. The development of an adaptive delta plan (ADP) consists of six steps[1]. The current BDP 2100 has effectively completed the first two steps of vulnerability and opportunity analysis and identification, measurement, and assessing efficacy.

The adaptive delta management plan partially completed steps like step 3 targeted to develop and map the adaptation pathway. Step 4 is targeted at designing an adaptive plan and defining triggers, step 5 aims to implement the plan, and step 6 is monitoring and evaluation, critical to complete adaptive delta planning and is the focus of this BDP 2100 M&E framework review

Way forward in a high-risk environment

To achieve the objective of the BDP 2100, a robust M&E system is essential to empower decision-makers and policy implementers. The upcoming report, “Towards a Sustainable Delta: An In-depth Analysis for a Climate-inclusive M&E Framework for Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100” by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) under the World Bank-funded Climate Adaptation and Resilience (CARE) for South Asia project, outlines recommendations to strengthen the BDP 2100 M&E framework.

The recommendations include:

Setting budgetary priorities: The M&E framework should outline the budgetary priorities and preferences for the BDP 2100 development and implementation.

Measuring progress to ensure inclusivity: The M&E framework should include mechanisms for measuring the progress of soft projects such as stakeholder capacity building, gender sensitization, pro-poor empowerment, and nature-based Additionally, it should also include the progress of infrastructure projects.

Tracking the outliers: The M&E framework should also include additional regional climate change indicators to monitor external conditions and fully reflect the monitoring needed to track progress towards the overall objectives of BDP 2100 and its specific goals. This will help to select an alternate adaptation pathway, program, or project. The additional indicators are recommended to be those designed by the UNEP and agreed to by the Bangladesh Government for reporting on SDG goals. Some additional indicators for each specific goal of the BDP 2100 have also been suggested from the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (FY2023 – FY2027) and the SDG Global Indicator Framework (updated for 2023).

Knowledge Exchange: Knowledge exchange across projects and departments like the Delta Governing Council will enable the inclusion of best practices, scientific data, and goals necessary to execute the BDP 2100

Adaptation tipping point: The adaptation tipping point should be considered to ensure comprehensive decision-making. These indicators should be selected during the design of alternative adaptation pathways. The process involves decisions on plan adjustments based on specific trigger points reached at four different delta scenarios. Since the adaptation pathways within the delta scenarios have not yet been fully defined, the trigger points are unknown in many cases. Further work is needed before this component of the M&E system can be designed.

Data and information for a sustainable M&E platform: An institutional framework is essential to strengthen the flow of information for the M&E platform. The Delta knowledge portal should integrate regional data platforms to enrich information from regional climate and hydrologic.

As proposed, the M&E framework of the Delta Plan 2100 will not only be adaptive and flexible to sustain the impact of climate change and human interventions but also help advance climate adaptation and resilience solutions in the planning and implementation process.

Such a comprehensive framework will allow us to achieve climate objectives, identify areas requiring development, and develop strategies for effective implementation.

[1] Adaptive Delta Management, Brochure, Deltares https://understandrisk.org/wp-content/uploads/Brochure-Adaptive-Delta-Management.pdf